WIR — 07 Jun 2026 05:05Z

### PART 2: Narrative Assessment in TELEGRAM Format

⚡ JIC-IW — INFORMATION WARFARE ASSESSMENT — 070503ZJUN2026

BLUF: An active IO campaign is leveraging synchronized convergence of events in Eastern Europe, Sahel, and the Middle East to shape global perceptions and undermine cohesion.

THREAT LEVEL: ACTIVE

ACTIVE NARRATIVES (this cycle): NARRATIVE: Disinformation in Congo worsening the Ebola epidemic Source: World | Deutsche Welle (organic) Technique: Fabrication Bias exploited: Confirmation bias Target audience: Global health community Beneficiary: Actors seeking to destabilize the region Spread velocity: Growing Counter-narrative: Available, emphasizing the importance of verified information

COORDINATION INDICATORS: State-affiliated amplification of disinformation narratives, simultaneous identical talking points across outlets.

STRATEGIC INTENT ASSESSMENT: The IO campaign aims to erode trust in global health institutions and create divisions among international partners.

UPCOMING IO WINDOWS: The Peruvian presidential elections and the Armenian polls could serve as triggers for IO campaigns.

RECOMMENDED COUNTERMEASURE: Prebunking and source exposure to mitigate the spread of disinformation, particularly in vulnerable regions.

CAPABILITY GAP: No real-time social media monitoring tool for early detection of disinformation campaigns.

FORECASTS:

[30d] Iran will increase its cyberattacks on Western targets in response to heightened sanctions — P(60%) — MODERATE confidence [60d] North Korea will conduct a nuclear test, escalating tensions in the region — P(40%) — LOW confidence [90d] The global community will experience a significant increase in disinformation campaigns targeting health and economic stability — P(70%) — MODERATE confidence