WIR — 02 Jun 2026 17:05Z

### PART 2 — TELEGRAM FORMAT

⚡ JIC-IW — INFORMATION WARFARE ASSESSMENT — 021703ZJUN2026

BLUF: Russian-Iranian IO networks are synchronizing narratives to fracture NATO cohesion and escalate tensions, leveraging the Zaporizhzhia NPP communications blackout and US-Iran kinetic exchange.

THREAT LEVEL: CAMPAIGN

ACTIVE NARRATIVES (this cycle): NARRATIVE: "US aggression against Iran and Ukraine threatens global stability" Source: TASS/Sputnik (state-affiliated) Technique: Fabrication, Amplification Bias exploited: Confirmation bias, Authority bias Target audience: Global, with emphasis on European and Middle Eastern populations Beneficiary: Russia, Iran Spread velocity: Growing Counter-narrative: Available, but gap in effective dissemination

COORDINATION INDICATORS:

• Simultaneous identical talking points across Russian and Iranian state-affiliated outlets
• State-affiliated amplification of narratives on social media platforms
• Timing aligned with geopolitical events, such as the US-Iran kinetic exchange and Zaporizhzhia NPP communications blackout

STRATEGIC INTENT ASSESSMENT:

The IO campaign aims to erode NATO cohesion, undermine trust in US leadership, and prepare the information space for potential kinetic actions by Russia and Iran.

UPCOMING IO WINDOWS:

• Expected statements from Russian and Iranian leaders in the next 48 hours
• Potential escalation of US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
• Anniversary of significant geopolitical events in the region, which could be leveraged for IO purposes

RECOMMENDED COUNTERMEASURE:

Prebunking and narrative correction efforts should focus on exposing the fabrication and amplification techniques used by Russian and Iranian IO networks. Enhancing the dissemination of counter-narratives through trusted channels and amplifying the voices of independent fact-checkers and journalists can help mitigate the spread of misleading information.

CAPABILITY GAP:

No real-time social media monitoring tool access for tracking IO network activities.

FORECASTS:

[30d] Russia will escalate IO efforts to fracture NATO cohesion, leveraging the Zaporizhzhia NPP situation and US-Iran tensions — P(60%) — MODERATE confidence [60d] Iran will increase its support for proxy groups in the Middle East, exploiting the current geopolitical instability — P(55%) — MODERATE confidence [90d] The US and its allies will implement targeted countermeasures against Russian and Iranian IO networks, aiming to restore information integrity and bolster NATO cohesion — P(50%) — LOW confidence