WIR — 31 May 2026 17:05Z

### PART 2: Narrative Assessment in TELEGRAM Format

⚡ JIC-IW — INFORMATION WARFARE ASSESSMENT — 311703ZMAY2026

BLUF: Active Russian-Iranian coordinated information operation campaign exploits recent geopolitical events to erode NATO cohesion, undermine Western alliances, and prepare the information space for potential kinetic actions.

THREAT LEVEL: CAMPAIGN

ACTIVE NARRATIVES (this cycle): NARRATIVE: "NATO Expansionism Threatens Global Security" Source: TASS/Sputnik (state-affiliated) Technique: Fabrication, Amplification Bias exploited: Confirmation bias, In-group/out-group Target audience: European and Middle Eastern populations Beneficiary: Russia, Iran Spread velocity: Growing Counter-narrative: Available, but gap in effective dissemination

COORDINATION INDICATORS:

• Simultaneous identical talking points across Russian and Iranian state-affiliated media outlets
• State-affiliated amplification of narratives on social media platforms
• Timing aligned with geopolitical events, such as the US military intercepting a blockade runner attempting to reach an Iranian port

STRATEGIC INTENT ASSESSMENT:

The IO campaign is designed to erode NATO cohesion, undermine Western alliances, and prepare the information space for potential kinetic actions by creating a narrative of NATO expansionism as a threat to global security.

UPCOMING IO WINDOWS:

• The upcoming G7 summit, which could serve as a trigger for IO campaigns targeting Western alliances and economic stability
• The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which could be exploited to further erode NATO cohesion and undermine Western resolve

RECOMMENDED COUNTERMEASURE:

• Prebunking and narrative correction efforts to counter Russian and Iranian disinformation campaigns
• Exposure of state-affiliated amplification and coordination indicators to raise awareness among target audiences
• Strengthening of counter-narratives and effective dissemination to counter the growing spread velocity of hostile narratives

JIC-IW/PIS

CAPABILITY GAP:

No direct access to real-time social media monitoring tools to track the spread velocity and effectiveness of counter-narratives.

FORECASTS:

[30d] Russia will escalate its disinformation campaign targeting NATO cohesion, using fabricated evidence of NATO aggression — P(60%) — MODERATE confidence [60d] Iran will increase its ballistic missile launches towards Kuwait, aiming to disrupt regional stability and prepare the information space for potential kinetic actions — P(50%) — MODERATE confidence [90d] The US and its allies will implement a comprehensive counter-narrative strategy to counter Russian and Iranian disinformation campaigns, potentially leading to a decrease in the spread velocity of hostile narratives — P(40%) — LOW confidence