WIR — 26 May 2026 17:04Z

### PART 2: Narrative Assessment in TELEGRAM FORMAT

⚡ JIC-IW — INFORMATION WARFARE ASSESSMENT — 261703ZMAY2026

BLUF: Iranian-aligned information operations are escalating, focusing on narratives of U.S. military overextension and regional control, synchronized with recent events in the Strait of Hormuz.

THREAT LEVEL: CAMPAIGN

ACTIVE NARRATIVES (this cycle): NARRATIVE: "U.S. Aggression in the Strait of Hormuz" Source: Iranian state media / organic Technique: Fabrication, Amplification Bias exploited: Confirmation bias, Authority bias Target audience: Regional and international audiences Beneficiary: Iran Spread velocity: Growing Counter-narrative: Available, but gap in effective dissemination

COORDINATION INDICATORS:

• Simultaneous identical talking points across Iranian state media and proxy accounts
• State-affiliated amplification of narratives on U.S. military actions
• Timing aligned with geopolitical events in the Strait of Hormuz

STRATEGIC INTENT ASSESSMENT:

The IO campaign is designed to undermine U.S. credibility, create divisions among allies, and prepare the information space for potential kinetic actions by Iran or its proxies.

UPCOMING IO WINDOWS:

• Expected statements from Iranian leaders on the anniversary of the JCPOA
• Potential U.S. or allied military operations in response to Iranian provocations

RECOMMENDED COUNTERMEASURE:

Prebunking and narrative correction efforts focusing on the factual context of U.S. military actions in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting Iranian aggression and the importance of maritime security.

CAPABILITY GAP:

No direct access to Iranian social media platforms for real-time monitoring and analysis.

FORECASTS:

[30d] Iran will increase its information operations targeting the U.S. and its allies, focusing on narratives of aggression and regional instability — P(60%) — MODERATE confidence [60d] The U.S. and its allies will face increased pressure to respond to Iranian provocations, potentially leading to a military confrontation — P(40%) — LOW confidence [90d] The situation in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to escalate, with Iran attempting to disrupt global oil supplies and challenge U.S. naval presence — P(50%) — MODERATE confidence