WIR — 25 May 2026 12:03Z

### PART 2: Narrative Assessment in TELEGRAM Format

⚡ JIC-IW — INFORMATION WARFARE ASSESSMENT — 251202ZMAY2026

BLUF: Iranian-aligned information operations are escalating, focusing on narratives of U.S. military overextension and regional control, synchronized with recent geopolitical events.

THREAT LEVEL: ACTIVE

ACTIVE NARRATIVES (this cycle): NARRATIVE: U.S. Military Overextension Source: Iranian state-affiliated media / organic social media Technique: Amplification, Deflection Bias exploited: Confirmation bias, In-group/out-group Target audience: Regional and international audiences skeptical of U.S. foreign policy Beneficiary: Iran, aiming to undermine U.S. influence and leverage in negotiations Spread velocity: Growing Counter-narrative: Available, emphasizing U.S. commitment to regional stability and security

COORDINATION INDICATORS:

• Simultaneous identical talking points across Iranian state-affiliated media and supportive outlets
• State-affiliated amplification of narratives on social media platforms
• Timing aligned with geopolitical events, such as the U.S.-Iran negotiations and Russia's ICBM test

STRATEGIC INTENT ASSESSMENT:

The IO campaign is designed to erode U.S. credibility, create divisions among allies, and prepare the information space for potential kinetic actions or increased tensions.

UPCOMING IO WINDOWS:

• The outcome of the U.S.-Iran negotiations
• The 2026 NPT Review Conference
• Escalations in the Ukraine-Russia conflict

RECOMMENDED COUNTERMEASURE:

Prebunking and narrative correction efforts focusing on the U.S. commitment to regional security, stability, and the importance of verifiable information in the face of disinformation campaigns.

CAPABILITY GAP:

No real-time social media monitoring tool for tracking the spread and evolution of specific narratives.

FORECASTS:

[30d] Iran will increase its information operations efforts to influence public opinion on the U.S.-Iran deal, potentially leading to increased tensions — P(60%) — MODERATE confidence [60d] The U.S. and its allies will face heightened disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining their unity and resolve in the face of Russian and Iranian aggression — P(70%) — MODERATE confidence [90d] The global information environment will become increasingly polarized, with state and non-state actors leveraging social media platforms to shape public opinion and influence geopolitical outcomes — P(80%) — HIGH confidence