WIR — 13 May 2026 06:01Z

: Updated Indicator Statuses

### PART 2: Narrative Assessment in TELEGRAM FORMAT

⚡ JIC-IW — INFORMATION WARFARE ASSESSMENT — 130600ZMAY2026

BLUF: Active information operations are leveraging the US-Iran conflict to disrupt global perceptions, undermine alliance cohesion, and prepare the information space for potential kinetic action.

THREAT LEVEL: ACTIVE

ACTIVE NARRATIVES (this cycle): NARRATIVE: US-Iran Conflict Escalation Source: TASS/Sputnik (state-affiliated) Technique: Fabrication, Amplification Bias exploited: Confirmation bias, Authority bias Target audience: Global, with a focus on European and Middle Eastern audiences Beneficiary: Iran, Russia Spread velocity: Growing Counter-narrative: Limited, with most efforts focused on fact-checking and debunking false claims

COORDINATION INDICATORS:

• Simultaneous identical talking points across TASS/Sputnik outlets
• State-affiliated amplification of Iranian and Russian narratives
• Timing aligned with geopolitical events, such as the Trump-Xi summit

STRATEGIC INTENT ASSESSMENT:

The IO campaign aims to undermine US credibility, create divisions within NATO, and prepare the information space for potential kinetic action in the region.

UPCOMING IO WINDOWS:

• Trump-Xi summit (potential flashpoint for IO activities)
• Escalating US-Iran conflict (increased IO activity expected)

RECOMMENDED COUNTERMEASURE:

• Prebunking and fact-checking efforts to counter false narratives
• Exposure of state-affiliated amplification and coordination
• Narrative correction to promote accurate information and undermine IO efforts

CAPABILITY GAP:

No real-time social media monitoring API access

FORECASTS:

[30d] Iran will increase its use of proxy forces in the region, leading to a significant escalation of the conflict — P(60%) — MODERATE confidence [60d] The US and China will engage in a series of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation, but with limited success — P(40%) — LOW confidence [90d] The conflict will spread to other regions, including the Caucasus and Central Asia, as regional actors take advantage of the power vacuum — P(30%) — LOW confidence