WIR — 13 May 2026 00:01Z

: Updated Indicator Statuses

### PART 2: Narrative Assessment in TELEGRAM FORMAT

⚡ JIC-IW — INFORMATION WARFARE ASSESSMENT — 130000ZMAY2026

BLUF: Active information operations are leveraging the US-Iran conflict to disrupt global perceptions, undermine alliance cohesion, and prepare the information space for kinetic action.

THREAT LEVEL: CAMPAIGN

ACTIVE NARRATIVES (this cycle): NARRATIVE: "Iran tells US to accept latest peace plan or face 'failure' of Middle East truce" Source: World | Deutsche Welle (T1) — state-affiliated Technique: Amplification — repeat until believed Bias exploited: Confirmation bias — reinforcing existing beliefs Target audience: International community Beneficiary: Iran Spread velocity: Growing Counter-narrative: Available — brief, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to Middle East peace

COORDINATION INDICATORS:

Evidence of coordinated amplification across state-affiliated outlets, including TASS and Sputnik, indicates a deliberate information operation.

STRATEGIC INTENT ASSESSMENT:

The IO campaign aims to undermine US credibility, create divisions within the international community, and prepare the information space for potential kinetic action in the Middle East.

UPCOMING IO WINDOWS:

The Trump-Xi summit and ongoing US-Iran conflict may serve as triggers for increased information operations.

RECOMMENDED COUNTERMEASURE:

Prebunking and narrative correction efforts should focus on promoting a balanced understanding of the Middle East peace process and highlighting the importance of international cooperation.

CAPABILITY GAP:

No real-time social media monitoring API access.

FORECASTS:

[30d] Iran will escalate its information operations campaign to coincide with the Trump-Xi summit, attempting to drive a wedge between the US and China — P(60%) — MODERATE confidence [60d] The US will respond with increased counter-narrative efforts, focusing on promoting a balanced approach to Middle East peace — P(55%) — MODERATE confidence [90d] The international community will experience heightened tensions due to the ongoing US-Iran conflict, with a potential for miscalculations leading to kinetic action — P(50%) — LOW confidence