MARKET — 13 Jul 2026 05:13Z

📈 J2-MARKET — 130513ZJUL2026 — EU-OPEN

BLUF: Escalating US-Iran conflict in the Strait of Hormuz drives market volatility, with crude oil prices surging.

DEFENSE:

Signal: BULLISH Driver: US-Iran conflict escalation, with Iran striking US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Watch: Lockheed Martin (LMT) $523.35, up 1.00%, and Raytheon (RTX) $195.96, up 0.38%.

ENERGY:

Signal: BULLISH Driver: Strait of Hormuz conflict disrupting oil supplies. Watch: WTI $69.60, Brent $69.56, with prices expected to rise further due to supply chain disruptions.

SANCTIONS & TRADE: Signal: RISK-OFF Driver: Escalating US-Iran conflict may lead to increased sanctions and trade restrictions. Exposed: Energy and defense sectors, particularly those with exposure to the Middle East.

FX:

EUR/USD: 1.1409 — Down due to safe-haven demand for the US dollar amid escalating conflict. USD/JPY: 161.9679 — Up as investors seek safe-haven assets. USD/TRY: No significant movement.

VOLATILITY:

VIX Regime: ELEVATED Signal: Increased volatility expected due to geopolitical tensions.

RISK DIAL: ELEVATED

Direction: RISING

EVENT RISKS TODAY:

• US-Iran conflict escalation, potentially leading to further market volatility.
• OPEC meeting, which may address supply chain disruptions.

CONFIDENCE: MODERATE

Basis: Multiple sources confirm the US-Iran conflict escalation, but the situation is rapidly evolving.