MARKET — 25 May 2026 05:08Z

📈 J2-MARKET — 250507ZMAY2026 — EU-OPEN

BLUF: Russia's new ICBM test and escalated attacks on Kyiv raise geopolitical tensions, impacting defense and energy sectors.

DEFENSE:

Signal: BULLISH Driver: Russia's ICBM test and increased aggression in Ukraine. Watch: Lockheed Martin (LMT) $533.41, up 2.07%, and Raytheon (RTX) $177.05, up 0.59%.

ENERGY:

Signal: BULLISH Driver: Uncertainty over a US-Iran deal and potential Strait of Hormuz reopening. Watch: WTI $112.25, Brent $116.73.

SANCTIONS & TRADE: Signal: RISK-OFF Driver: Escalating tensions between Russia and the West. Exposed: European energy sector, particularly Germany and France.

FX:

EUR/USD: 1.1647 — Stable, with euro slightly strengthening. USD/JPY: 158.8554 — Yen weakens as risk appetite increases. USD/TRY: Not available — Turkish lira volatility expected due to regional tensions.

VOLATILITY:

VIX Regime: ELEVATED Signal: Increased uncertainty over geopolitical events.

RISK DIAL: ELEVATED

Direction: RISING

EVENT RISKS TODAY:

• US-Iran deal negotiations — potential impact on energy prices.
• Russian aggression in Ukraine — escalating tensions.

CONFIDENCE: MODERATE

Basis: Multiple sources confirm Russian ICBM test and increased aggression, but uncertainty remains over US-Iran deal and its impact on energy prices.