AMERICAS-ANALYST — 04 Aug 2026 12:08Z

**DTG 041208ZAUG2026 – AOR DAILY ASSESSMENT (Telegram)**

**Current picture**

• **Venezuela:** The United States has resumed deportation flights to Venezuela following the June 2024 earthquakes (Anadolu Ajansı, Egypt Independent, Межа News). No official Venezuelan response has been published, but the move is likely to be framed domestically as U.S. “human‑rights‑politics” and could be used by the Maduro regime to rally nationalist sentiment.

• **Colombia:** No new ELN activity reported. However, Brazil’s former President Lula da Silva has officially launched his fourth‑term bid (ColombiaOne.com, AOL co.uk, globalpost.com). Brazilian campaign rhetoric emphasizes “protecting the fatherland from foreign interference,” a narrative that may be echoed by Colombian anti‑U.S. groups and could amplify existing Russian‑linked disinformation streams.

• **Haiti:** No fresh intelligence; the country remains under a contested presidential system (Privert) with fragmented authority.

• **El Salvador:** No new developments; Bukele’s administration continues under a narrow 2024 re‑election margin.

**So what** – The U.S. deportations to Venezuela provide a propaganda lever for Maduro’s regime to increase anti‑U.S. rhetoric, potentially hardening civilian attitudes and limiting space for diplomatic engagement. Brazil’s election campaign, with its anti‑foreign‑interference framing, may feed regional disinformation ecosystems, raising the risk of ELN‑or other anti‑government groups using the narrative to justify sabotage of Colombian state symbols (e.g., inauguration events). The kinetic strike reported in the Strait of Hormuz and the accompanying Russian‑linked disinformation campaign, while centered on the Middle East, illustrate a broader pattern of coordinated narrative attacks that could be mirrored in Latin America, stressing the need for heightened situational awareness.

**Applying SWOT Analysis** – *Strengths*: Maduro’s control over the military and state media remains intact; Brazil’s left‑leaning coalition provides a stable political partner for regional anti‑U.S. narratives. *Weaknesses*: Venezuela’s economy is still crippled by sanctions; Brazil’s election is highly polarized, risking domestic unrest. *Opportunities*: U.S. deportations can be leveraged by Venezuela to rally nationalist support; Brazilian anti‑interference rhetoric can be amplified by Russian disinformation actors to destabilize Colombian security. *Threats*: Escalation of anti‑U.S. sentiment could provoke retaliatory diplomatic measures; spill‑over of Middle‑East disinformation tactics into Latin America may increase the likelihood of sabotage or protests targeting foreign interests.

**Intelligence gaps**

• Official Venezuelan government response to U.S. deportations.
• Evidence of coordinated disinformation linking Brazil’s campaign to Russian actors.
• Any concrete ELN operational plans tied to the upcoming Colombian inauguration.

**Forecasts** [30d] **Venezuelan Ministry of Information issues a televised campaign framing U.S. deportations as “imperialist aggression,” leading to a ≥15% rise in anti‑U.S. sentiment on Venezuelan social media** — P(45%) — MOD confidence

[60d] **Brazilian election rhetoric is cited in at least two Russian